¶ Why Impeachment?
Impeachment can and must work. Trump has already been impeached twice, with the house passing three articles of impeachment for the relatively tame first term.
First Article: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/660
House R: 0 of 197 - House D: 229 of 233 - House I: 1 of 1 - Senate R: 1 of 53 - Senate D: 45 of 45 - Senate I: 2 of 2
Second Article: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/755
House R: 0 of 197 - House D: 227 of 233 - House I: 1 of 1 - Senate R: 0 of 53 - Senate D: 45 of 45 - Senate I: 2 of 2
Third Article: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-resolution/24
House R: 10 of 211 - House D: 222 of 222 - House I: N/A - Senate R: 7 of 50 - Senate D: 48 of 48 - Senate I: 2 of 2
The Third Article of Impeachment related to the January 6th Capitol attack and got 57 votes. Of those 57, many are still in the Senate. Although the House decides whether to impeach, it only takes a simple majority there, so I will focus on the Senate.
The Senate must convict by two thirds. That's 67 votes in the Senate to convict and remove a president from office. There are 47 Democrats or Independents that caucus with the Democrats in the Senate right now. Of the 7 Republicans who voted to impeach last time, 3 are still in their seats and are likely to vote against Trump if good articles are presented; 2 have been replaced by Trump fans; one was replace by a Democrat; and 1 was replaced by a very similar moderate Republican. At worst, from those two groups, we are at 50 solid votes to impeach before we even start laying groundwork or doing targeted outreach.
That leaves 17 votes to get. So let's look at who might be persuadable:
Some senators whose terms are up in 2026 have changed their tunes on Trump, indicating some level of discomfort with him.
Mitch McConnell is stepping down at the end of the year, rather than running again and looks very likely to vote against Trump.
Rand Paul has been vocally opposing tariffs and. Has always been a constitutionalist and pro-military guy.
Thom Tillis in North Carolina is going to have to run again in 2026 and is reportedly in hot water with the state Republican Party. He is also a Russia hawk.
John Husted Vance's replacement is a traditional Republican but his personal interests and sense for the rule of law is unknown. He has to run a tough special election in 2026, and the news out of Ohio is pretty bad for Republicans.
Bill Cassidy (running in 2026) is pro vaccine and anti-Russia, and facing a primary challenge from Louisiana’s Treasurer.
Some have already been calling out the Trump administration on its current failings:
Todd Young from Indiana opposed Trump as a candidate and has a moderate stance on immigration.
Jerry Moran has spoken out against the withholding of aid to foreign nations via Doge’s shutdown of USAID.
John Kennedy of Louisiana has criticized the tariffs imposed and the treatment of Ukraine.
Rand Paul has criticized the increased tariffs, domestic surveillance programs and
John Thune, Senate Majority Leader has been pissed about Ukraine and very critical of tariffs. He’s also trying to protect USPS from the ax. He has also subtly pushed back on the criticism of the court system.
Even Roger Wicker, Chair of the Armed Services Committee, has been pretty upset over the Signal chat about military action.
These are just people who have publicly made statements or previously voted to remove Donald Trump from office. So lets say just 70% of those Republicans above who appear soft on Trump already are willing to turn. That gets us to 57. If Mitt Romney’s replacement in Utah, included in the analysis of previous impeachment votes above, also goes that’s 58.
58 people already without even getting asked about impeachment are high probability yes votes. 67 is of course more than 58, but it's not that much more. We will be pushing for these votes through in person outreach, calls, emails and special protest days with their consitutents. Do you think that hundreds of people on the mall, hundreds of people asking for appointments to beg for impeachment, hundreds of people sending emails and phone calls can change nine minds?
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